Keeping the Race in Perspective

Oh no! Obama is losing ground in the polls against Hillary! Oh no! Barack is going to get swift-boated for being an "Elitist" or because his crazy former pastor won't go away! Oh no! A lot of general election polls show Clinton performing stronger against McCain than Obama does. Oh no! The sky is falling!

People,

Please keep things in perspective. We are at the very end of this primary campaign and Obama is leading in every real measure and the only poll that matters: The actual VOTE. After millions of Americans actually stepping inside the voting booth and pulling a lever, it would take nothing short of a miracle for Hillary to make up the difference in popular vote. His lead in pledged delegates is huge, and as Chuck Todd put it, "If the pledged delegate race was an individual state, we would call it for Obama". Don't let anyone full you when they try to say things like "Obama's small but insurmountable lead in pledged delegates". His lead is by no means small in any way. As a matter of fact, what makes his lead look so impressive is that it is virtually impossible for Clinton to overtake.

Need I remind you that we are still SEVEN MONTHS from November. If you have been supporting Obama as long as I have (October 2006), there have been plenty of times where jumping ship would have been easy. If you remember correctly, polls in Iowa--the election that officially started his campaign's movement to where he is today--didn't show him in the lead until the last week before the caucus. So what I am doing is looking at the polls (because I like to see what states are within striking distance) and completely ignore them because they don't matter one bit right now.
The GOP and Clinton camp are digging for anything they can find, but the truth is there is not much they can attack Obama on. Now that Obama has thoroughly addressed the whole Wright thing, it will die down (but it won't completely go away because it's all they have). The more opportunity Obama has to introduce himself and the whole elitist tag, the more people will see that it doesn't even make sense. I mean, honestly, this guy is one of the best communicators in a generation, and the fact is less than a decade ago he about as average an American you can find. Give him time to work on it and the people will follow.

Superdelegates are looking at all these same aspects all the time, and they see the same thing that we do: Obama is clearly winning this contest, and a vote that gives this election to Hillary without an extremely good reason would be the eventual death of the Democratic Party. If you think for one second any superdelegate is going to vote for Hillary based primarily on general election polling trends in MAY, you should probably take a time-out and recollect your thought process.

Democrats have lost the past two Presidential elections because ultimately the race came down to two states each time (Ohio and Florida) and couldn't win them both either time. One of Hillary's main arguments is that she performs better in those two state, so she should be the nominee. I know I am fed up that out of 50 states, only two matter, and I would imagine those who's jobs are on the line would probably welcome a change of scenery. The fact is that Obama can get to 270 in quite a few different scenarios without carrying either of those two states. One of his biggest appeals to elected officials that are superdelegates is the fact that Obama has pledged to run a 50 state campaign and their jobs depend on his success. Obama is going to be able to raise enough money that every congressional district in the country will benefit from the publicity Obama brings.

Currently Obama is in a rut, but it will turn around. If you would have told me 18 months ago that Barack Obama would be the Democratic front-runner, leading the Clinton Political Machine in every single real measure, and that John McCain would have been his party's nominee for two month while both McCain and Clinton would be attacking Obama daily and from every angle, and Obama would still be standing there like his is today, I wouldn't have believed you. But that's where we are right now. The Democratic race is all but finished, and once Obama is the official nominee (and no longer getting GOP attacks from the Clinton's) he will get a HUGE bump in polls around the country. There is a clear desire for the Democratic Party that by not having a nominee gets lost in the polls. And at the same time, there is absolute spite for the GOP because of the economy, the wars, the lies, the scandals, and John McCain is taking the strategy of winning 50 + 1 percent by embracing things he used to be against.

Like I said, keep things in perspective.

UPDATE: A little of topic, but FactCheck.org just released an article conflicting Obama's plan on capital gains. Bottom line: Obama is truthful and his plan only affects about 10% of all making under $100k. I also want to point out I have sent about 300 emails to newspapers and media outlets, including FactCheck.org, and asked them to address this. I am not saying my emails had any influence, but I really think if we all put our minds together and made a larger effort to direct the media's attention to the important things, we would have more success. Take a look at this diary I wrote a few days ago explaining my plan to do just this.